本期覆盖 2026-06-19 至 2026-06-26，共收录高置信度文章 17 篇，边缘相关 1 篇，待人工核实 1 篇。

本周亮点

亮点 1：Declining tropical sea surface temperature variability under post-2050s greenhouse warming

期刊：Nature Climate Change ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02684-z

English summary

This study shows that tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Atlantic Niño/Niña, is projected to weaken under post-2050s greenhouse warming. The decline in variability has significant implications for climate predictability and impacts on ecosystems and societies. Published in Nature Climate Change, this work challenges the assumption that SST variability will remain unchanged under future warming.

中文解读

该研究指出，在2050年后的温室增暖背景下，热带海表温度（SST）变率（包括ENSO、印度洋偶极子和 Atlantic Niño/Niña）预计将减弱。这一变率下降对气候可预测性以及生态系统和社会影响具有重要意义。该工作发表在《自然·气候变化》上，挑战了未来增暖下SST变率不变的假设。

亮点 2：Southern Ocean latent heat flux variability driven by oceanic meso- and submesoscale motions

期刊：JC ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-26-0082.1

English summary

Using a year-long global coupled simulation at kilometer-scale resolution, this study quantifies the influence of oceanic mesoscale and submesoscale motions on latent heat flux (LHF) variability over the Southern Ocean. It finds that annual-mean LHF in eddy-rich regions reaches ~215 W/m², about three times larger than in eddy-poor regions, and that fine-scale SST variability drives a substantial fraction of LHF variance. This work highlights the importance of resolving fine-scale ocean processes for understanding air-sea heat exchange.

中文解读

该研究利用为期一年的全球公里尺度耦合模拟，量化了海洋中尺度与亚中尺度运动对南大洋潜热通量（LHF）变率的影响。研究发现，涡旋丰富区域的年平均LHF可达约215 W/m²，约为涡旋贫乏区域的三倍，且精细尺度SST变率驱动了LHF方差的很大一部分。这项工作强调了解析精细尺度海洋过程对于理解海气热交换的重要性。

文章详览

1. JPO — Eddies in the Irminger Current and their impacts on re-stratification of the interior Irminger Sea in a 1/20° ocean general circulation model

Abstract

Abstract Using a 1/20° ocean general circulation model, this study investigates eddies generated along the Irminger Current west of the Reykjanes Ridge and their impacts on upper-layer (100-1000 m) re-stratification of the interior Irminger Sea following wintertime convection. From 2008 to 2018, 647 cyclones and 403 anticyclones are generated in the Irminger Current in the model, both carrying relatively warm waters compared to the convective interior and thus are potential buoyancy sources. However, trajectories of these coherent eddies reveal that they rarely reach the deep convection site, precluding a direct contribution to re-stratification therein. A heat budget analysis in the convection region indicates that the mean-state heat gain during re-stratification period (April-November) is mostly accomplished by locally generated eddies. On interannual time scale, however, the variability in heat gain is modulated by seasonal and interannual fluctuations in local circulation and temperature. Although the Irminger Current eddies do not penetrate the convection site, they play an important, though indirect, role in re-stratification. Specifically, they facilitate substantial heat transport from the boundary current into a transition zone – the general area between the boundary current and the convective interior – where heat is subsequently advected into the deep convection site by locally generated eddies (in the long-term mean) or circulation (on interannual time scale). This study thus elucidates the heat pathway from an eddy-rich buoyant boundary current to the deep convection region in the Irminger Sea, highlighting the interplay between remote and local processes in re-stratification.

中文摘要

摘要 本研究利用1/20°海洋环流模式，探讨了雷克雅内斯海脊西侧伊尔明格流生成的涡旋及其对冬季对流后伊尔明格海内部上层（100-1000米）再层化过程的影响。在2008年至2018年间，模式中伊尔明格流共生成647个气旋式涡旋和403个反气旋式涡旋，这些涡旋携带的水体均比对流内部区域更为温暖，因此是潜在的浮力来源。然而，这些相干涡旋的轨迹显示它们极少抵达深对流区域，从而排除了其对再层化的直接贡献。对流区域的热量收支分析表明，再层化期间（4月至11月）平均态的热量获取主要来自局地生成的涡旋。但在年际时间尺度上，热量获取的变率受局地环流和温度的季节及年际波动调控。尽管伊尔明格流涡旋并未侵入对流区域，但它们通过间接方式在再层化过程中发挥重要作用。具体而言，这些涡旋促进了从边界流到过渡区（即边界流与对流内部之间的广阔区域）的大量热量输送，随后这些热量通过局地生成的涡旋（长期平均态下）或环流（年际时间尺度上）平流进入深对流区域。本研究因此阐明了从涡旋丰富的浮力边界流到伊尔明格海深对流区域的热量传输路径，揭示了远程与局地过程在再层化中的相互作用。

2. JPO — Revisiting the SST–heat flux feedback parameter at mid-latitudes: The potential uncertainty associated with heat flux discrepancies

Abstract

Abstract The response of air–sea turbulent heat flux (THF) anomalies to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is represented by the SST–heat flux feedback parameter. The magnitude of parameter alpha is typically estimated as 30 W m −2 K −1 at mid-latitudes. However, the robust quantification of alpha is restricted by substantial uncertainties in THF products, which impedes accurate understanding of air–sea interactions. Here, we estimate the uncertainty in alpha by combining theoretical sensitivity experiments, Monte Carlo experiments, and constraints from multiproduct and in situ buoy observations. The results of the theoretical experiments indicate that prescribed THF perturbations of 20–30 W m −2 can cause systematic biases of ∼7–15 W m −2 K −1 in magnitude. Analysis based on Monte Carlo experiments reveals that the air–sea specific humidity difference dominates the variance in alpha, with the upper bound of the ensemble standard deviation under identical perturbations reaching ∼12 W m −2 K −1 , whereas the contributions from the wind speed and air–sea temperature difference are relatively small. These results are confirmed by the multiproduct and in situ buoy observations. Moreover, differences among bulk flux algorithms can result in additional algorithm-induced uncertainties ranging from ∼6–9 W m −2 K −1 in alpha estimates. Our findings demonstrate that uncertainties in the THF can substantially propagate into SST–heat flux feedback estimates, thus highlighting the need to better constrain near-surface humidity and THF parameterizations to improve representations of air–sea coupling and climate variability.

中文摘要

摘要 海气湍流热通量异常对海表温度异常的响应由海表温度-热通量反馈参数表示。在中纬度地区，参数α的典型估计值为30 W m⁻² K⁻¹。然而，由于湍流热通量产品存在显著不确定性，α的稳健量化受到限制，这阻碍了对海气相互作用的准确理解。本文通过结合理论敏感性实验、蒙特卡洛实验以及多产品和现场浮标观测的约束，估算了α的不确定性。理论实验结果表明，预设的湍流热通量扰动为20–30 W m⁻²时，可导致α量级产生约7–15 W m⁻² K⁻¹的系统性偏差。基于蒙特卡洛实验的分析揭示，海气比湿差主导了α的方差，在相同扰动下集合标准差的上限可达约12 W m⁻² K⁻¹，而风速和海气温差的贡献相对较小。这些结果得到了多产品和现场浮标观测的验证。此外，不同总体通量算法之间的差异可能导致α估计中额外产生约6–9 W m⁻² K⁻¹的算法诱导不确定性。我们的研究结果表明，湍流热通量的不确定性会显著传播至海表温度-热通量反馈估计中，因此强调需要更好地约束近地表湿度和湍流热通量参数化方案，以改进海气耦合和气候变率的表征。

3. JC — Combined Effects of Annual Cycle and ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific

Abstract

Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important to the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Western North Pacific (WNP). However, the mechanisms for the TC seasonal changes in ENSO developing phase remain unclear. This study addresses the critical influences of the background sea surface temperature (SST) annual cycle and ENSO related sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in regulating TC genesis seasonal changes. The results show that during eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño years, TC genesis increases in the southeastern WNP and decreases in the northwest in summer, while in autumn, TC genesis strengthens in the east and weakens in the west. For central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, basin-wide enhancement occurs in summer, with a southeast–northwest contrast in fall, whereas La Niña developing years exhibit nearly opposite patterns. These variations arise from anomalous convection generated by the combination of warm background SST annual cycle and ENSO SSTA, which modify large-scale conditions for TC genesis. Background SST can also strengthen ENSO evolution via the Bjerknes feedback, amplifying circulation impacts. This work provides a new perspective on the critical role of background SST annual cycle in shaping the ENSO–TC relationship, which is potentially helpful for improving seasonal TC prediction over the WNP.

中文摘要

摘要 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）对西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）生成的年际变率具有重要影响。然而，ENSO发展期TC季节变化的机制仍不清楚。本研究揭示了背景海表温度（SST）年循环和ENSO相关海表温度距平（SSTA）在调控TC生成季节变化中的关键作用。结果表明：在东部太平洋（EP）厄尔尼诺年，夏季西北太平洋东南部TC生成增加而西北部减少，秋季则东部增强而西部减弱；对于中部太平洋（CP）厄尔尼诺事件，夏季出现全海盆范围的增强，秋季呈现东南-西北反相分布，而拉尼娜发展年则呈现近乎相反的空间格局。这些变化源于暖背景SST年循环与ENSO SSTA共同作用产生的异常对流，进而改变了TC生成的大尺度环境条件。背景SST还可通过Bjerknes反馈增强ENSO演变，放大环流影响。本研究为背景SST年循环在塑造ENSO-TC关系中的关键作用提供了新视角，有望改进西北太平洋TC季节预测。

4. JC — Effect of Summertime Cyclones on Surface Turbulent Heat Exchange in the Arctic

Abstract

Abstract Arctic cyclones are intense synoptic events that can cause strong turbulent air–sea–ice heat exchange. We quantify the contribution of summertime cyclones to surface turbulent heat fluxes (THFs) over open ocean, marginal ice zone, and sea ice in the Arctic using ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to 2021. Our results show that the Barents-Kara Sea and Fram Strait exhibit the largest relative contributions of cyclone-driven THFs, where cyclones account for ~30% of the total THFs. Applying the self-organizing map technique to cluster cyclone tracks, we classify Arctic cyclones in these two key regions and investigate their specific THFs. Climatologically, THFs reflect a net warming to the atmosphere mainly through upward surface latent heat fluxes, partially compensated by net downward surface sensible heat fluxes. This climatological signal is modulated by cyclones. In the Barents-Kara Sea, THFs decrease as cyclones enter the region, followed by a significant increase, whereas the Fram Strait exhibits a persistent increase during and after cyclone passage, with the peak values over open ocean. Our findings highlight the crucial role of cyclone trajectories in modulating local THFs in both the Barents-Kara Sea and Fram Strait. Specifically, cyclones from Eurasia Continent (CON) and the Nordic Seas (NOR) overall suppress summertime THFs, predominantly through near surface air warming prior to arrival, especially associated with sensible heat fluxes. The integrated cyclone-driven THFs are largest within the marginal ice zone. In contrast, cyclones from Greenland (GRE) amplify summertime THFs via surface latent cooling after cyclones enter the region.

中文摘要

摘要 北极气旋是强烈的天气尺度事件，可引发强烈的湍流海-气-冰热交换。我们利用1980至2021年的ERA5再分析数据，量化了夏季气旋对北极开阔洋、边缘冰区及海冰区域表面湍流热通量的贡献。结果表明，巴伦支-喀拉海和弗拉姆海峡的气旋驱动湍流热通量相对贡献最大，气旋贡献约占该区域总湍流热通量的30%。应用自组织映射技术对气旋路径进行聚类分析，我们将这两个关键区域的北极气旋进行分类，并研究其特定的湍流热通量特征。气候学上，湍流热通量主要通过向上的表面潜热通量向大气提供净增温，部分被向下的表面感热通量净补偿所抵消。这一气候学信号受到气旋的调制。在巴伦支-喀拉海，气旋进入该区域时湍流热通量降低，随后显著增加；而弗拉姆海峡在气旋过境期间及过境后持续增加，峰值出现在开阔洋区域。我们的研究结果凸显了气旋轨迹在调制巴伦支-喀拉海和弗拉姆海峡局地湍流热通量中的关键作用。具体而言，来自欧亚大陆和北欧海的气旋总体上抑制了夏季湍流热通量，主要通过气旋到达前的近地表空气增温（尤其与感热通量相关）实现。气旋驱动的综合湍流热通量在边缘冰区最大。相比之下，来自格陵兰的气旋在进入该区域后通过地表潜热冷却增强了夏季湍流热通量。

5. JC — Diverse Impacts of Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific ENSO on Australian Spring Rainfall and Associated Southern Hemisphere Large-scale Circulation

Abstract

Abstract Despite extensive research on the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on Australia’s climate, the physical mechanisms by which these two ENSO types influence Australian rainfall remain poorly understood. Here we examine EP/CP ENSO’s influences on Australian spring rainfall and Southern Hemisphere large-scale circulation using updated observations and reanalysis for 1950–2024. EP ENSO induces regionally dispersed rainfall anomalies, mainly concentrated in the Northern Territory, Murray-Darling Basin, and southwest Western Australia—the latter, an area traditionally considered less affected by ENSO. In contrast, CP ENSO forces a continental-scale rainfall response across northern and eastern Australia. These diverse impacts arise from changes in moisture transport and surface evaporation modulated by anomalous large-scale circulation. EP El Niño exhibits stronger co-variability with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and is accompanied by a Rossby wave train emanating from tropical Indian Ocean that anchors an equivalent-barotropic anticyclonic anomaly south of Australia, suggesting the role of Indian Ocean in mediating EP El Niño’s impacts. CP El Niño tends to decouple with IOD and features westward-shifted enhanced equatorial Pacific convection, causing a zonally elongated Pacific-South America pattern with a low-pressure anomaly extending closer to the east Australian coast. La Niña events generally produce opposite responses, but CP La Niña asymmetrically exerts stronger impacts with more widespread rainfall increases. Differences in tropical Rossby wave source, together with extratropical transient eddy feedback, explain distinct large-scale circulation anomalies that drive different rainfall patterns. These results advance the understanding of the diversity of ENSO teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere.

中文摘要

摘要 尽管已有大量研究探讨了东太平洋型和中央太平洋型厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对澳大利亚气候的影响，但这两种ENSO类型影响澳大利亚降水的物理机制仍不明确。本文利用1950-2024年更新的观测资料和再分析数据，研究了东太平洋/中央太平洋型ENSO对澳大利亚春季降水及南半球大尺度环流的影响。东太平洋型ENSO引发区域分散的降水异常，主要集中于北领地、墨累-达令盆地和西澳大利亚西南部——后者传统上被认为受ENSO影响较小。相比之下，中央太平洋型ENSO在澳大利亚北部和东部引发大陆尺度的降水响应。这些差异源于异常大尺度环流调控的水汽输送和地表蒸发变化。东太平洋型厄尔尼诺与正印度洋偶极子表现出更强的协变性，并伴随源自热带印度洋的罗斯贝波列，在澳大利亚南部锚定一个等效正压反气旋异常，表明印度洋在调节东太平洋型厄尔尼诺影响中的作用。中央太平洋型厄尔尼诺倾向于与印度洋偶极子解耦，其特征是赤道太平洋对流增强区西移，形成纬向拉长的太平洋-南美洲型遥相关，低压异常更接近澳大利亚东海岸。拉尼娜事件通常产生相反响应，但中央太平洋型拉尼娜非对称地施加更强影响，带来更广泛的降水增加。热带罗斯贝波源差异与中纬度瞬变涡旋反馈共同解释了驱动不同降水模式的大尺度环流异常。这些结果推进了对南半球ENSO遥相关多样性的理解。

6. JC — Sub-seasonal Variability of West Antarctic Surface Air Temperature in Austral Summer

Abstract

Abstract Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data, this study examines the sub-seasonal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over West Antarctica in austral summer. Sub-seasonal SAT variability accounts for more than 45% of the total SAT variability, with its leading mode, extracted by an empirical orthogonal function analysis, accounting for 50.1% of the total variance. The sub-seasonal SAT variability is further divided into high-frequency (10–30-day) and low-frequency (30–60-day) components, in which the high-frequency mode is found to be the dominant contributor. The 10–30-day SAT fluctuations are driven by propagating atmospheric waves with a quasi-barotropic structure, though the underlying mechanisms responsible for SAT anomalies vary regionally. Revealed by the temperature tendency analysis, air temperature anomalies over the Ross Ice Shelf are primarily driven by horizontal temperature advection, while those over the coastal Marie Byrd Land are induced by both diabatic and meridional advective processes, and those over the inland Marie Byrd Land are dominated by adiabatic processes. In addition, it is confirmed that downward longwave radiative heating plays a dominant role in warming both the coastal and interior ice-covered surface, while sensible heating plays a secondary role. More importantly, during warm phases, the 10–30-day SAT variability may exert non-negligible impacts on underlying ice sheets by significantly accelerating surface meltwater production.

中文摘要

摘要 利用ERA5再分析资料，本研究考察了南极洲西部夏季地表气温（SAT）的次季节变率。次季节SAT变率占总SAT变率的45%以上，其通过经验正交函数分析提取的主导模态解释了总方差的50.1%。次季节SAT变率进一步划分为高频（10–30天）和低频（30–60天）分量，其中高频模态被确定为主要贡献者。10–30天SAT波动由具有准正压结构的传播大气波驱动，但导致SAT异常的潜在机制存在区域差异。温度倾向分析揭示，罗斯冰架上的气温异常主要由水平温度平流驱动，而玛丽·伯德地沿海地区的异常则由非绝热和经向平流过程共同引起，内陆玛丽·伯德地的异常则以绝热过程为主导。此外，研究证实向下长波辐射加热在沿海和内陆冰盖表面增温中起主导作用，而感热加热起次要作用。更重要的是，在暖相位期间，10–30天SAT变率可能通过显著加速地表融水产生，对下伏冰盖产生不可忽视的影响。

7. JC — Origins of Cold Sea Surface Temperature Biases in the South China Sea During ENSO Winters in CMIP6 Models

Abstract

Abstract The South China Sea (SCS) exhibits a characteristic “double-peak” warming pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTAs) associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual timescales, featuring distinct warming peaks during the El Niño mature winter and the following summer. Analysis of 24 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) shows that, while the summer warming peak is reasonably well captured, the wintertime warming is substantially underestimated. This cold bias arises from reduced warming rates during the preceding autumn and is closely linked to an excessive westward extension of ENSO-related SSTAs into the equatorial western Pacific (EWP). The bias originates from the well-known “cold tongue” error in the central–eastern equatorial Pacific mean state, which enhances the climatological negative zonal SST gradient and intensify both the climatological and ENSO-related zonal advection processes. The resulting westward-displaced warming in the EWP subsequently induces a westward shift in the SCS anticyclone via a Gill-type response, producing anomalous lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulations over the SCS. This cyclonic bias reduces downward shortwave radiation, enhances latent heat loss, and promotes Ekman upwelling and vertical mixing, thereby entraining cooler subsurface waters into the mixed layers. Collectively, these processes suppress local SST warming, leading to a cold SSTA bias in the SCS during ENSO winters. These results highlight key deficiencies in simulating ENSO–SCS teleconnection in CMIP6 models and underscore the importance of improving the Pacific mean state and associated zonal advection feedback.

中文摘要

摘要 南海在年际时间尺度上呈现出与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）相关的海表温度异常（SSTAs）的典型“双峰”增暖特征，即在厄尔尼诺成熟冬季和随后的夏季出现显著增暖峰值。对耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）中24个模式的分析表明，虽然夏季增暖峰值被较好地模拟，但冬季增暖被显著低估。这种冷偏差源于前秋季增暖速率减弱，并与ENSO相关海表温度异常过度向西延伸至赤道西太平洋（EWP）密切相关。该偏差源于赤道中东太平洋平均态中著名的“冷舌”误差，该误差增强了气候态负向纬向海温梯度，并加剧了气候态和ENSO相关的纬向平流过程。由此导致的赤道西太平洋增暖西移，随后通过吉尔型响应引发南海反气旋西移，在南海产生异常低层气旋性环流。这种气旋性偏差减少了向下短波辐射，增强了潜热损失，并促进了埃克曼上升流和垂直混合，从而将较冷的次表层水卷挟至混合层。这些过程共同抑制了局地海表增暖，导致ENSO冬季南海出现冷海表温度异常偏差。这些结果揭示了CMIP6模式在模拟ENSO-南海遥相关中的关键缺陷，并强调了改进太平洋平均态及相关纬向平流反馈的重要性。

8. JC — Southern Ocean latent heat flux variability driven by oceanic meso- and submesoscale motions

Abstract

Abstract Latent heat flux (LHF) is a primary pathway for ocean–atmosphere exchange of heat and moisture, yet the influence of sea surface temperature variability at fine scales (≤ 100 km) on LHF variability, particularly over the Southern Ocean, remains poorly understood. Here we quantify the scale-dependent drivers of LHF variability using a year-long, global, fully coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation with kilometer-scale resolution. Annual-mean LHF in eddy-rich regions reaches ≈ 215Wm −2 , approximately three times larger than in eddy-poor regions. Spectral analyses show that ocean mesoscale [𝒪(100 km)] and submesoscale [𝒪(1–10 km)] variability accounts for up to ≈ 80% of the total LHF variance in eddy-rich sectors, but as little as 10% in eddy-poor regions, and increases proportionally with eddy kinetic energy and sea surface temperature (SST) variance. We also find that strong submesoscale SST fronts (≈ 5 °C over 10 km) force a localized secondary circulation that extends well above the marine boundary layer into the mid-troposphere. Comparison with ERA5 shows that fine ocean scales, responsible for about 17% of the ocean-driven LHF variance in the simulation, are largely unresolved in the reanalysis, leading to a muted atmospheric response lacking any secondary circulation. Despite a strong heterogeneity in LHF variability, the atmospheric dynamics are mostly uniform across the domain, suggesting a non local atmospheric response to ocean forcing. These results highlight the potential for ocean meso- and submesoscales, commonly under-resolved in climate models and reanalysis, to influence Southern Ocean air–sea coupling and atmosphere both locally and remotely.

中文摘要

摘要 潜热通量（LHF）是海洋与大气之间热量和水分交换的主要途径，然而，海表温度在精细尺度（≤100公里）上的变率对LHF变率的影响，尤其是在南大洋区域，仍知之甚少。本文利用为期一年、全球范围、千米级分辨率的完全耦合海洋-大气模拟，量化了LHF变率的尺度依赖性驱动因素。涡旋丰富区域的年平均LHF达到约215瓦/平方米，约为涡旋贫乏区域的三倍。谱分析表明，海洋中尺度（约100公里）和亚中尺度（约1-10公里）变率在涡旋丰富区域可解释高达约80%的总LHF方差，而在涡旋贫乏区域仅占约10%，且其贡献随涡动能和海表温度（SST）方差成比例增加。我们还发现，强烈的亚中尺度SST锋面（10公里内约5°C）会驱动局地次级环流，该环流可延伸至海洋边界层以上，进入对流层中层。与ERA5再分析资料的对比显示，模拟中由海洋驱动的LHF方差中约17%归因于精细海洋尺度，而这些尺度在再分析资料中基本未被解析，导致大气响应被削弱，且缺乏任何次级环流。尽管LHF变率存在强烈的空间异质性，但大气动力学在整个区域内基本均匀，这表明大气对海洋强迫的响应是非局地的。这些结果凸显了海洋中尺度和亚中尺度（通常在气候模式和再分析中解析不足）对南大洋海-气耦合及局地和远程大气影响的潜在作用。

9. GRL — Stacked Cells Hypothesized for Jupiter’s Atmosphere and Observed in Earth’s Atmosphere

Abstract

Abstract Observations of Jupiter’s atmosphere led to the hypothesis that each of Jupiter’s jets is accompanied by vertically stacked overturning circulations, with their nodes at the altitude of the jet maximum. However, there is no established theory for how these stacked cells form. Here, we show that jet‐scale, stacked residual mean circulations exist in Earth’s atmosphere. Eddy momentum flux plays the primary role in driving the stacked cells. The upper cell’s return flow is balanced by form drag which results from poleward eddy heat flux. Although the two atmospheres differ, the findings here serve as a proof of concept that stacked cells can exist in Jupiter’s atmosphere. They offer plausible explanations for why cell nodes form at the level of maximum zonal jet speed and raise the possibility that baroclinic eddies may play an important role in driving stacked cells in Jupiter’s atmosphere.

中文摘要

摘要 对木星大气的观测提出了一个假说，即木星的每一条急流都伴随着垂直堆叠的翻转环流，其节点位于急流最大速度的高度处。然而，目前尚无成熟的理论解释这些堆叠环流单元的形成机制。本文研究表明，地球大气中存在急流尺度的堆叠残余平均环流。涡动动量通量在驱动这些堆叠环流单元中起主要作用。上层环流单元的返回流由极向涡动热通量产生的形状阻力平衡。尽管两种大气存在差异，但本文的研究结果作为概念验证，表明堆叠环流单元可能存在于木星大气中。这为环流节点为何形成于纬向急流最大速度高度提供了合理解释，并提出了斜压涡动可能在驱动木星大气堆叠环流单元中发挥重要作用的可能性。

10. GRL — Atmospheric Tides Imprint a Wavenumber‐4 Structure in Topside Ionospheric ELF Wave Intensity

Abstract

Abstract Atmospheric tides produce a well known pronounced longitudinal wavenumber‐4 (WN‐4) structure in the ionosphere, but their influence on electromagnetic‐wave propagation through the ionosphere remains poorly constrained. Here we use DEMETER satellite measurements to show that the extremely low frequency (ELF) electric field in the low‐latitude topside ionosphere contained a robust daytime WN‐4 pattern during 2006–2010. The seasonal variation of the WN‐4 amplitude is consistent with the reported climatology of the diurnal eastward‐propagating tide with zonal wavenumber 3 (DE3). The meridional phase structure of WN‐4 is in‐phase between geomagnetic low‐latitudes and the magnetic equator, indicating that the pattern is unlikely to be imprinted by the F‐region ionosphere but is rather driven by the tidal modulation of lower‐ionospheric attenuation during the trans‐ionospheric propagation of ELF waves. These results suggest a coupling pathway by which lower‐atmospheric tides can modulate the trans‐ionospheric propagation of ELF electromagnetic waves.

中文摘要

摘要 大气潮汐在电离层中产生众所周知的显著经向波数-4（WN-4）结构，但其对电磁波穿越电离层传播的影响仍缺乏充分约束。本研究利用DEMETER卫星测量数据表明，2006–2010年间低纬度顶部电离层中的极低频（ELF）电场存在稳定的白天WN-4模式。WN-4振幅的季节变化与已报道的东向传播纬向波数3（DE3）潮汐气候学特征一致。WN-4的经向相位结构在地磁低纬度和磁赤道之间呈同相分布，表明该模式并非由F区电离层印记产生，而是由ELF波跨电离层传播过程中低电离层衰减的潮汐调制所驱动。这些结果揭示了一条耦合路径，即低层大气潮汐可调制ELF电磁波的跨电离层传播。

11. GRL — Asymmetric Ocean‐Atmosphere Coupling Between Southeast Pacific and Southern Ocean Cooling Through Circulation and Sea‐Ice Changes

Abstract

Abstract Recent decades have seen persistent sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the Southeast Pacific (SEP) and Southern Ocean (SO), contrasting with broad ocean warming expected under anthropogenic forcing. Using an interpretable machine‐learning attribution framework applied to multi‐source observations and reanalyses, we focus on monthly SST variations beyond intrinsic oceanic persistence and relate them to physical predictors. Cooling in each region is associated with distinct combinations of physical predictors. In the SO, enhanced sea‐ice variability and lower‐tropospheric circulation anomalies account for a substantial fraction of the post‐2000 cooling. In the SEP, cooling is associated with a strengthened subtropical high, thermodynamic and cloud–radiative feedbacks. A moving‐window analysis indicates asymmetric coupling, with strengthening SO‐to‐SEP association in SST variability and a relative decline in local SEP feedbacks. These results show how high‐latitude–subtropical interactions can modulate regional SST trends under global warming through circulation, sea ice, and air–sea coupling.

中文摘要

近几十年来，东南太平洋和南大洋海表温度持续冷却，这与人为强迫作用下预期的广泛海洋增温形成鲜明对比。本研究采用可解释的机器学习归因框架，结合多源观测与再分析数据，聚焦于超越海洋固有持续性的月尺度海温变化，并将其与物理预测因子相关联。两个区域的冷却分别对应不同的物理预测因子组合：在南大洋，增强的海冰变率与低层大气环流异常共同解释了2000年后冷却的显著部分；在东南太平洋，冷却则与副热带高压增强、热力学及云-辐射反馈作用相关。滑动窗口分析揭示了非对称耦合特征——南大洋与东南太平洋海温变率的关联性增强，而东南太平洋局地反馈作用相对减弱。这些结果表明，在全球变暖背景下，高纬度与副热带地区的相互作用可通过环流、海冰及海气耦合过程调节区域海温趋势。

12. GRL — Emergence of Subsurface Warming in the Southern Ocean Gateway Between New Zealand and Antarctica

  • 作者：Antonino Ian Ferola, Yuri Cotroneo, Pasquale Castagno, Giannetta Fusco, P. Falco, Giorgio Budillon, Enrico Zambianchi, Giuseppe Aulicino
  • 发表日期：2026-06-20
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121465

Abstract

Abstract We analyze temperature variability in the surface and intermediate layers of the Southern Ocean from 1994 to 2025 using a 30‐year summertime record of Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) measurements collected along the PX36 line across the New Zealand–Antarctica chokepoint of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Significant subsurface warming emerges along the northern flank of the current, while waters south of the Polar Front exhibit no long‐term trend. Within the main water masses of the region, Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water warm by ∼0.22 and ∼0.16°C decade −1 respectively, driven largely by strong temperature increase during the last decade. These results reveal this chokepoint as a hotspot of Antarctic Intermediate Water variability and suggest warming in its upstream source regions, underscoring the need for sustained, high‐resolution monitoring of this key sector of the Southern Ocean.

中文摘要

摘要 我们利用1994年至2025年间沿新西兰-南极洲之间的南极绕极流（ACC）瓶颈区PX36断面采集的30年夏季抛弃式深温仪（XBT）观测记录，分析了南大洋表层和中间层的温度变化。在绕极流北翼区域出现了显著的地下增温现象，而极锋以南的水域则未呈现长期趋势。在该区域主要水团中，亚南极模态水和南极中层水分别以约0.22°C/十年和0.16°C/十年的速率增温，这主要归因于过去十年间的强烈升温。这些结果表明该瓶颈区是南极中层水变化的热点区域，并暗示其上游源区存在增温现象，凸显了对这一南大洋关键区域进行持续高分辨率监测的必要性。

13. GRL — Machine Learning Eliminates Reanalysis Warm Bias and Reveals Weaker Winter Surface Cooling Over Arctic Sea Ice

  • 作者：Akil Hossain, Paul Keil, Harsh Grover, Ian M. Brooks, Christopher J. Cox, Michael Gallagher, Mats A. Granskog, Heather Guy, Stephen R. Hudson, P. Ola G. Persson, Matthew D. Shupe, Michael Tjernström, Jutta Vüllers, Von P. Walden, Felix Pithan
  • 发表日期：2026-06-19
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121289

Abstract

Abstract The surface energy budget governs Arctic sea‐ice growth/melt, yet observations are sparse, and reanalysis data sets suffer from systematic biases. Here, we train a neural network with observational data to bias‐correct hourly ERA5 fluxes over Arctic ice‐covered regions (≥70°N; sea‐ice concentration >80%) for 1994–2024. Training data cover two full seasonal cycles and different sea‐ice regimes. The neural network reduces RMSE for net shortwave radiation by ∼40%, downward longwave radiation by ∼16% and the total surface energy budget by ∼55%, eliminating the wintertime warm bias of ∼4 K in ERA5. Wintertime surface cooling is reduced by ∼50%, yielding thermodynamic ice‐growth estimates of ∼80–120 cm, consistent with SMOS–CryoSat satellite thickness increases and in contrast to the 150–200 cm growth implied by ERA5. Our bias‐corrected data capture the observed clear/cloudy states of the winter boundary layer and can be used to study Arctic climatology, evaluate climate models and drive sea‐ice‐ocean models.

中文摘要

摘要 表面能量收支控制着北极海冰的增长/融化，然而观测数据稀少，再分析数据集存在系统性偏差。本文利用观测数据训练神经网络，对1994–2024年北极冰覆盖区域（≥70°N；海冰浓度>80%）的ERA5逐时通量进行偏差校正。训练数据涵盖两个完整季节循环及不同海冰状态。该神经网络将净短波辐射的均方根误差降低约40%，向下长波辐射降低约16%，总表面能量收支降低约55%，消除了ERA5中约4 K的冬季暖偏差。冬季地表冷却幅度减少约50%，由此得到的热力学海冰增长估算值约为80–120 cm，与SMOS–CryoSat卫星厚度增长数据一致，而ERA5隐含的冰增长量为150–200 cm。经偏差校正后的数据能够捕捉冬季边界层观测到的晴空/多云状态，可用于研究北极气候学、评估气候模式以及驱动海冰-海洋模式。

14. Nature Geoscience — Reply to: AMOC response to historical freshwater increase

Abstract

Nature Geoscience, Published online: 25 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s41561-026-02029-7 Reply to: AMOC response to historical freshwater increase

中文摘要

《自然·地球科学》在线发表：2026年6月25日；doi:10.1038/s41561-026-02029-7
回复：大西洋经向翻转环流对历史时期淡水增加的响应

15. Nature Geoscience — AMOC response to historical freshwater increase

  • 作者：Marion Devilliers, Didier Swingedouw, Torge Martin, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ilana Schiller-Weiss, Juliette Mignot, Steffen M. Olsen, Julie Deshayes
  • 发表日期：2026-06-25
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02028-8

Abstract

Nature Geoscience, Published online: 25 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s41561-026-02028-8 AMOC response to historical freshwater increase

中文摘要

《自然·地球科学》在线发表：2026年6月25日；doi:10.1038/s41561-026-02028-8
大西洋经向翻转环流对历史时期淡水增加的响应

16. Nature Climate Change — Declining tropical sea surface temperature variability under post-2050s greenhouse warming

Abstract

Nature Climate Change, Published online: 25 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02684-z Tropical climate, including sea surface temperatures (SSTs), varies with natural cycles such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Niño/Niña variability. This work shows that the SST variability weakens under future greenhouse warming, with implications for predictability.

中文摘要

《自然·气候变化》2026年6月25日在线发表；doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02684-z

热带气候，包括海表温度，随厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、印度洋偶极子和太平洋尼诺/尼娜变率等自然周期而变化。本研究表明，在未来温室增暖背景下，海表温度变率将减弱，这对可预测性具有重要影响。

17. GRL — Anomalous Energy Fluxes and Feedback Parameter Over the Course of ENSO Events

Abstract

Abstract Internal variability may provide constraints on the global temperature response to forcing. Previous work showed that ENSO induces atmospheric stratification anomalies that lead to tropical low cloud anomalies not correlated with mean temperature. Here, we expand this argument. We discuss the physical processes leading to a canonical evolution of the global feedback parameter over the course of an ENSO event, , where is the ENSO phase, and differs from the feedback parameter observed in typical forcing experiments. During the growth phase of El Niño, the heat flux from the tropical Pacific into the atmosphere is amplified by a net gain at the top of the atmosphere (an apparent runaway state), and heat is primarily redistributed among tropical ocean basins. During the peak phase, the static stability anomaly rapidly decays, and only in the decay phase does the climate system lose heat to space.

中文摘要

摘要 内部变率可能对全球温度对强迫的响应提供约束。先前研究表明，ENSO会引发大气层结异常，进而导致与平均温度不相关的热带低云异常。本文进一步拓展了这一论点。我们讨论了在ENSO事件过程中导致全球反馈参数典型演变的物理过程，其中为ENSO位相，且该参数与典型强迫实验中观测到的反馈参数不同。在厄尔尼诺增长阶段，热带太平洋向大气输送的热通量因大气层顶的净增益（一种明显的失控状态）而放大，热量主要在热带洋盆间重新分配。在峰值阶段，静力稳定度异常迅速衰减，仅在衰减阶段气候系统才向太空散失热量。

边缘相关条目

命中物理海洋学关键词，但同时涉及其他学科领域，仅供参考。

  • GRL — Reduced West Antarctic Ice Sheet Size During Prominent Quaternary Interglacials Constrained by Iceberg‐Rafted Debris Provenance in the Amundsen Sea（DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl121909）
    • 命中: Antarctic Circumpolar
    • 排除: sediment

待人工核实

元数据缺失（摘要 / DOI / 作者），需人工核查后再纳入。

  • Ocean Modelling — Nonlinear wave transformation across a beach platform backed by a coastal dune: A physical modelling study
    • 缺失项: 摘要缺失或过短
    • 链接: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102784