本期覆盖 2026-06-05 至 2026-06-12，共收录高置信度文章 22 篇，边缘相关 3 篇，待人工核实 1 篇。

本周亮点

亮点 1：Human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900

期刊：Nature Climate Change ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02659-0

English summary

This study, published in Nature Climate Change, uses tide-gauge data and models to quantify how anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900. The authors find that human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of such events, highlighting the growing threat to coastal systems. This work is a direct observation-based attribution of extreme sea-level changes to human activity, with significant implications for coastal adaptation and policy.

中文解读

这项发表在《自然·气候变化》上的研究利用验潮站数据和模型，量化了自1900年以来人为气候变化如何增加了沿海极端海平面事件的频率。作者发现，人为驱动的海平面上升已使此类事件的频率增加了四倍，凸显了对沿海系统日益增长的威胁。该工作直接基于观测将极端海平面变化归因于人类活动，对沿海适应和政策制定具有重要意义。

亮点 2：Reduced Distinctiveness of Extreme El Niño Teleconnections in Warmer Climates

期刊：GRL ｜ DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121189

English summary

This study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, uses CMIP6 multi-model simulations to show that under warmer climates, extreme El Niño teleconnections become weaker and shift eastward, reducing their distinctiveness from moderate events. Specifically, at warming levels above +2°C, teleconnections shift eastward by 20°, weaken by 33% over North America, and develop a negative NAO-like response. This challenges the current understanding of El Niño impacts and has major implications for future climate projections and disaster preparedness.

中文解读

这项发表在《地球物理研究快报》上的研究利用CMIP6多模式模拟表明，在更暖的气候下，极端厄尔尼诺的遥相关会减弱并东移，使其与中等事件的差异性降低。具体而言，当升温超过+2°C时，遥相关东移20°，北美上空强度减弱33%，并出现类似负北大西洋涛动的响应。这挑战了当前对厄尔尼诺影响的理解，对未来气候预估和防灾准备具有重要启示。

文章详览

1. JPO — Evidence of surface wave reduction by hurricane-generated ocean currents

  • 作者：A. Papandreou, Isaac Ginis, Tetsu Hara, Jacob Davis, Isabel Houghton, Jim Thomson, Martha Schonau, Luca Centurioni
  • 发表日期：2026-06-10
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-25-0282.1

Abstract

Abstract A recent modeling study using idealized tropical cyclones concluded that storminduced surface currents can significantly reduce the significant wave height (Hs) and peak period (Tp) of surface waves. In the present study, we validate that conclusion by comparing drifting buoy observations with model simulations using a standalone wave model and a coupled ocean-wave model that includes current effects, for four hurricanes. When the impact of currents is small, predictions of Hs and Tp by both models closely match observations. However, when strong current effects are present, simulations that exclude currents systematically overestimate both wave parameters, while including currents leads to a significant improvement in model performance, reducing mean bias by a factor of two or more. These results provide strong evidence that Hs and Tp are frequently reduced by storm-induced currents under tropical cyclones. Our analysis also shows that these current effects are most pronounced in deep water but remain substantial in intermediate depths (20–70 m), where most of the observations in this study were collected. Incorporating storm-driven currents into wave forecasts can therefore greatly enhance prediction accuracy and has important implications for operational forecasting and coastal hazard assessments.

中文摘要

摘要 一项近期利用理想化热带气旋进行的模拟研究得出结论，风暴引起的表层流可显著降低表面波的有效波高（Hs）和谱峰周期（Tp）。在本研究中，我们通过对比四个飓风期间的漂流浮标观测数据与独立波浪模式及耦合海流-波浪模式的模拟结果，验证了这一结论。当海流影响较小时，两种模式对Hs和Tp的预测均与观测值高度吻合。然而，当强海流效应存在时，未包含海流的模拟会系统性高估这两个波浪参数，而包含海流后模式性能显著提升，平均偏差降低两倍或更多。这些结果有力证明，在热带气旋条件下，Hs和Tp常因风暴诱导海流而减小。我们的分析还表明，这些海流效应在深水区最为显著，但在中等水深（20–70米）区域仍相当可观——本研究大部分观测数据正是在此水深范围内采集的。因此，将风暴驱动海流纳入波浪预报可大幅提高预测精度，对业务化预报和海岸灾害评估具有重要意义。

2. JPO — Coastal-Trapped Waves and Instabilities in Background Flows

Abstract

Abstract This paper considers coastal-trapped waves and instabilities in the non-hydrostatic Boussinesq equations in the presence of a background flow and complicated coastal topography, using a spectral method to discretise the two-dimensional eigenvalue problem and solve the resulting discrete problem by standard methods. Our approach is applied to several examples, and demonstrated to be consistent with previous numerical and analytical results. Further, we are able to reliably identify previously unseen coastal trapped wave modes using a realistic coastal geometry, thereby confirming predictions made by Gelderloos et al. (2021) based on recent simulations of the Southeast Greenland shelf.

中文摘要

摘要 本文研究了在背景流和复杂海岸地形条件下，非静力Boussinesq方程中的海岸陷波和不稳定性问题。采用谱方法对二维特征值问题进行离散化，并通过标准方法求解所得离散问题。我们将该方法应用于多个算例，并证明其结果与先前的数值及解析结果一致。此外，利用真实海岸几何形态，我们能够可靠地识别出先前未观测到的海岸陷波模态，从而验证了Gelderloos等人（2021）基于东南格陵兰陆架近期模拟所做出的预测。

3. JPO — Inertial Oscillations Disintegrating Coherent Vortices

Abstract

Abstract We study the disintegration of coherent vortices due to interaction with inertial oscillations using a two-vertical-mode model. For this, we generated and examined 640 flow regimes by varying the Rossby number and baroclinic–barotropic energy ratio. Based on the study, we find that increasing the Rossby number while keeping the same energy ratio and increasing the energy ratio at the same Rossby number can lead to faster disintegration of vortices. Exploring physical space regions partitioned into strain-dominant and vorticity-dominant regions, we see that disintegrating vortices have forward energy flux located in strain-dominant regions, while slightly weaker inverse energy flux is seen in vorticity-dominant regions. The net effect results in a forward cascade of the flow. Multiple phenomenological changes in the disintegration process are also seen on comparing anticyclonic and cyclonic vortices. The findings of this study in general help develop an understanding of the energy levels and Rossby number needed for unbalanced flows to disintegrate balanced flows in a broad regime going from small to O (1) Rossby numbers, this being the Rossby number transition seen as we move from mesoscales to submesoscales in the world’s oceans.

中文摘要

摘要 我们利用双垂直模态模型研究了相干涡旋因与惯性振荡相互作用而发生的解体过程。为此，通过改变罗斯比数和斜压-正压能量比，生成并分析了640种流动状态。研究发现，在保持相同能量比的情况下增大罗斯比数，以及在相同罗斯比数下增大能量比，均会导致涡旋解体加速。通过将物理空间区域划分为应变主导区和涡度主导区，我们发现解体涡旋的正向能量通量位于应变主导区，而涡度主导区则呈现略弱的逆向能量通量，净效应导致流动出现正向级联。对比反气旋式与气旋式涡旋时，还观察到解体过程中的多种现象学变化。本研究结果总体上有助于理解从较小罗斯比数到O(1)量级罗斯比数的广泛范围内（即世界海洋中从中尺度向亚中尺度过渡时观测到的罗斯比数转变），非平衡流解体平衡流所需的能量水平和罗斯比数条件。

4. JPO — The transient response of dense water storage in a hydraulically drained ocean basin through one or two passages, in the context of the Greenland-Iceland-Scotland Ridge

Abstract

Abstract To investigate dense-water hydraulics under transient conditions, we examine the time-dependent adjustment of circulation in an ocean basin drained by one or two hydraulically controlled straits. Adjustment is triggered by a sudden increase in the imposed inflow to the upstream basin and is communicated to the draining strait(s) by a coastal Kelvin wave. Hydraulic control at a sill causes partial reflection of the transport anomaly back into the upstream basin, while the remaining signal is transmitted to the downstream basin. The resulting adjustment process and draining timescale can be interpreted in terms of these wave pathways and their reflection coefficients. The dynamics become more complex in the presence of two draining straits separated by an island. Using numerical experiments with a 1.5-layer model including an active lower layer, we explore the effects of strait width and sill depth, as well as rotation and stratification. While the presence of a second strait increases Kelvin-wave reflection at each individual strait, the combined effect of both straits enhances the net volume transmission to the downstream basin, significantly reducing the upstream draining timescale relative to a single-strait configuration. A theoretical estimate of the reflection coefficient underestimates by the reflection values diagnosed in the model by a factor of four, and we propose an empirical parameterization that better fits the experiments. Applied to the Nordic Seas, the results suggest a characteristic draining timescale of 2–3 months, largely independent of perturbation amplitude.

中文摘要

摘要 为研究瞬态条件下的稠密水水力学，我们考察了由一个或两个受水力学控制的海峡排水的海洋盆地中环流随时间变化的调整过程。调整由上游盆地入流突然增加触发，并通过沿岸开尔文波传递至排水海峡。海槛处的水力学控制导致输送异常部分反射回上游盆地，而剩余信号则传递至下游盆地。由此产生的调整过程及排水时间尺度可依据这些波路径及其反射系数进行解释。当存在由岛屿分隔的两个排水海峡时，动力学过程变得更加复杂。通过采用包含活跃下层的1.5层模型进行数值实验，我们探讨了海峡宽度、海槛深度以及旋转和层结的影响。尽管第二个海峡的存在增加了每个海峡处的开尔文波反射，但两个海峡的联合效应增强了下游盆地的净体积传输，显著缩短了相对于单海峡配置的上游排水时间尺度。反射系数的理论估计值比模型中诊断的反射值低估了四倍，我们提出了一种与实验更吻合的经验参数化方案。将该结果应用于北欧海，表明其特征排水时间尺度为2-3个月，且基本不受扰动振幅的影响。

5. JC — Tropical-extratropical teleconnection of the winter Atlantic Niño in a climate model

Abstract

Abstract Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) in sea surface temperature (SST) exerts a significant influence on the climate of surrounding regions. The Atlantic Niño (ATLN) is one of the leading modes of TAV, with a primary peak in summer (June-July) and a secondary peak in early winter (November-December). This study aims at exploring the atmospheric response to winter ATLN, as it has been much less documented than the summer ATLN. Coupled and atmosphere-only simulations with the climate model EC-EARTH have been performed and analyzed to investigate the extratropical teleconnection of the winter ATLN in the North Atlantic-European (NAE) sector. Results show a tropical Gill-type structure, baroclinic and symmetrically straddling the equator, whose amplitude increases from November-December to January-February. In the extratropics, the atmospheric circulation displays a wave-like dipolar structure with cyclonic anomalies at mid-latitudes and anticyclonic anomalies at subpolar latitudes, which is different from the North Atlantic Oscillation. This wavetrain response includes the feedback from both stationary and transient eddy activity. The associated precipitation anomalies show a robust signal over NAE. Differences in statistical significance are found when comparing observational data with model results, although the spatial patterns are similar, particularly in early winter. These findings enhance our understanding of the potential impact of the winter ATLN and suggest it could represent an untapped source of predictability.

中文摘要

摘要 热带大西洋海表温度变率（TAV）对周边地区气候具有显著影响。大西洋尼诺（ATLN）是TAV的主要模态之一，其峰值出现在夏季（6-7月）和初冬（11-12月）。本研究旨在探索冬季ATLN的大气响应，因为相较于夏季ATLN，冬季ATLN的研究记录较少。通过使用气候模式EC-EARTH进行耦合试验和仅大气模式模拟，分析并研究了冬季ATLN在北大西洋-欧洲（NAE）区域的副热带遥相关。结果表明，热带地区呈现吉尔型结构，具有斜压性且对称地横跨赤道，其振幅从11-12月到1-2月逐渐增强。在副热带地区，大气环流呈现波状偶极子结构，中纬度地区为气旋性异常，副极地纬度地区为反气旋性异常，这与北大西洋涛动不同。该波列响应包含了定常和瞬变涡旋活动的反馈。相关的降水异常在NAE区域显示出稳健的信号。尽管空间模态相似（尤其在初冬），但观测数据与模式结果在统计显著性上存在差异。这些发现加深了我们对冬季ATLN潜在影响的理解，并表明其可能代表一种尚未开发的预测性来源。

6. JC — Moist Potential Vorticity Mechanism for Generation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Three–river–source Region of China

Abstract

Abstract The three–river–source (TRS) region in the hinterland of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau over China is often affected by heavy rainfall and even disasters associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Using an MCSs dataset established by hourly equivalent blackbody temperature (TBB) data of FY–2 series geostationary meteorological satellites and ERA5 reanalysis data in the warm season (May–August) from 2005 to 2020, moist potential vorticity (MPV) mechanism for generating MCSs in the TRS is analyzed. Under the influences of weather systems such as mid–level trough and subtropical high and high–level South Asian high and westerly jet, the positive promotion effect of relative moist potential vorticity (RMPV) on MCSs is quite apparent and is most effective near the mid–level frontal zone. The background moist potential vorticity of atmosphere (AMPV) provides favorable environmental energy. RMPV is the power source to convert unstable energy into kinetic energy for MCSs generation through promoting the development of moist baroclinicity and the creation of slantwise upward motion then organizing convection, with moisture transport of lower–level easterly anomaly being a signal. The barotropic term (ζMPV) identifies the location of the MCSs generation, and the baroclinic term (SMPV) is the dynamical supporter for the “vortex source”. The convergence near 500 hPa between high–level westerly jet and low–level southeasterly jet serves as an important driving force for MCSs generation, while heating is an important exogenous accelerator in energy conversion.

中文摘要

摘要 位于中国青藏高原腹地的三江源地区常受强降水乃至与中尺度对流系统（MCSs）相关的灾害影响。利用2005—2020年暖季（5—8月）FY-2系列静止气象卫星逐时相当黑体温度（TBB）数据建立的MCSs数据集及ERA5再分析资料，分析了三江源地区MCSs生成的湿位涡（MPV）机制。在中层槽和副热带高压、高层南亚高压和西风急流等天气系统影响下，相对湿位涡（RMPV）对MCSs的正向促进作用十分显著，且在中层锋区附近效果最强。大气背景湿位涡（AMPV）提供了有利的环境能量。RMPV通过促进湿斜压性发展和倾斜上升运动生成进而组织对流，将不稳定能量转化为MCSs生成动能的动力源，其中低层东风异常的水汽输送是重要信号。正压项（ζMPV）标识了MCSs生成的位置，斜压项（SMPV）则是“涡源”的动力支撑。高层西风急流与低层东南风急流在500 hPa附近的辐合是MCSs生成的重要驱动力，而加热则是能量转换中的重要外源加速器。

7. JC — Unveiling the nonstationarity in the subseasonal ENSO–East Asian winter monsoon teleconnection

Abstract

Abstract Recent studies suggest that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a stronger influence on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in early winter than in late winter. Here we show that this subseasonality is not a persistent feature of the climate system but instead exhibits pronounced nonstationarity. Using reanalysis datasets, idealized numerical experiments, and CMIP6 AMIP simulations, we find that a statistically significant early–late winter contrast occurs mainly during the late 1970s to late 1990s, while it is weak or absent in earlier and more recent decades. During 1979– 1999, the late-winter ENSO–EAWM teleconnection weakens markedly, accompanied by a reduced Indian Ocean–Maritime Continent precipitation dipole, a more eastward-displaced equatorial central–eastern Pacific precipitation anomaly, and a corresponding weakening of Rossby wave trains toward East Asia. These tropical changes are consistent with a transition from a double-cell to a single-cell anomalous Walker circulation from early to late winter. The Eurasian midlatitude wave train also weakens in late winter, in association with differences in Eurasian surface air temperature anomalies and the subseasonal evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation, further amplifying the subseasonal contrast. During 2000–2020, the Indian Ocean–Maritime Continent dipole remains evident and the equatorial Pacific forcing is displaced farther west, allowing both the tropical and midlatitude responses to be better maintained into late winter. Our results suggest that the nonstationary subseasonal ENSO–EAWM teleconnection is driven mainly by changes in tropical forcing, with background-state changes likely playing a secondary role. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for nonstationarity when interpreting ENSO teleconnections and improving seasonal prediction.

中文摘要

近期研究表明，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）对东亚冬季风（EAWM）的影响在初冬强于晚冬。本研究发现这种次季节特征并非气候系统的持久属性，而是呈现显著的非平稳性。基于再分析资料、理想数值试验及CMIP6 AMIP模拟，我们发现统计显著的初冬-晚冬差异主要出现在1970年代末至1990年代末，而在更早及近几十年中该差异较弱或不存在。在1979-1999年期间，晚冬ENSO-EAWM遥相关显著减弱，伴随印度洋-海洋性大陆降水偶极子减弱、赤道中东太平洋降水异常东移，以及向东亚传播的罗斯贝波列相应减弱。这些热带变化与沃克环流异常从初冬的双圈结构转变为晚冬的单圈结构相一致。欧亚中纬度波列在晚冬亦减弱，这与欧亚地表气温异常差异及北大西洋涛动次季节演变有关，进一步放大了次季节对比。在2000-2020年期间，印度洋-海洋性大陆偶极子仍保持显著，赤道太平洋强迫西移，使得热带和中纬度响应均能更好地维持至晚冬。我们的结果表明，非平稳的次季节ENSO-EAWM遥相关主要由热带强迫变化驱动，背景态变化可能起次要作用。这些发现强调了在解释ENSO遥相关及改进季节预测时需考虑非平稳性的重要性。

8. JC — Warming Tropical Western Pacific Fuels More Frequent Winter Surface Wind Extremes over the South China Sea

Abstract

Abstract Recent studies have noticed that wintertime extreme surface wind frequency (ESWF) over the South China Sea (SCS)—one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes—is on the rise. This trend poses heightened threats to maritime transportation and offshore operations along the heavily trafficked East Asian coastline. By using 44 years (1979–2022) ERA5 reanalysis data, we verify a statistically significant increasing trend in winter ESWF (daily mean 10-m wind speed > 10.8 m/s) over the northern SCS. Further analysis identifies tropical western Pacific (TWP) sea surface temperature (SST) warming as the dominant factor driving the ESWF increase, while the warming in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) exerts a partially offsetting effect. The warmed TWP excites a Gill-type response in the tropics with an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the northern SCS, resulting in the increase in ESWF in the region. A binary linear regression model based on TWP and TIO SST anomalies, which captures both the interannual variability and the long-term increasing trend of the northern SCS ESWF, is also developed to investigate these influences. This study highlights the critical role of remote TWP SST forcing in modulating the extreme wind events over East Asian coastal seas, providing a scientific foundation for improving predictions of marine extreme weather and climate events.

中文摘要

摘要 近期研究注意到，全球最繁忙航道之一的南海冬季极端海面风速频率呈上升趋势。这一趋势对东亚沿岸繁忙航线上的海上运输和离岸作业构成更大威胁。利用44年（1979–2022年）ERA5再分析资料，我们验证了南海北部冬季极端海面风速频率（日平均10米风速>10.8米/秒）在统计上显著的增加趋势。进一步分析表明，热带西太平洋海表温度增暖是驱动极端海面风速频率增加的主导因素，而热带印度洋增暖则起到部分抵消作用。增暖的热带西太平洋在热带地区激发吉尔型响应，在南海北部形成异常气旋性环流，导致该区域极端海面风速频率增加。基于热带西太平洋和热带印度洋海表温度异常建立的二元线性回归模型，能够同时捕捉南海北部极端海面风速频率的年际变率和长期增长趋势，并用于探究这些影响。本研究揭示了远程热带西太平洋海表温度强迫在调控东亚沿岸海域极端风事件中的关键作用，为改进海洋极端天气与气候事件的预测提供了科学基础。

9. JC — Marine Heatwaves in the Arabian Sea: Drivers and Impacts on Atmospheric Circulation and Extreme Precipitation

Abstract

Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) threaten marine ecosystems and significantly impact weather patterns. In the Arabian Sea, summer MHWs are of particular concern due to their potential impacts on the Indian summer monsoon, a lifeline for nearly a billion people. However, the drivers of these MHWs and their influence on atmospheric circulation and monsoon rainfall remain poorly understood. Using satellite observations, reanalysis datasets, and numerical model experiments, we investigate the key drivers ofMHWsand assess their impacts. When SSTwarming trends are retained, the eastern and northern Arabian Sea emerge asMHWhotspots, showing rapid increases during 1982–2023, largely due to anthropogenic warming. After detrending the SST to remove the influence of anthropogenic warming on individual MHWs, we find that most MHWs are short-lived (lasting ≤ 20 days) and are initiated by enhanced surface shortwave radiation and reduced latent heat loss associated with the suppressed convection phases of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO). Interannual SST anomalies (SSTAs), including ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), further modulate the year-to-year MHW variability. Conversely, the warmSSTAs duringMHWsexert strong atmospheric feedbacks. MHWsin the eastern Arabian Sea drive cyclonic winds, intensify moisture convergence and increase the risk of extreme precipitation along the southwest coast of India. In the northern Arabian Sea, MHW-induced cyclones trigger intense rainfall over northwestern India and Pakistan, contributing to extreme events like the 2022 Pakistan floods. These findings improve our capacity to predict Arabian Sea MHWs and assess their risks, offering significant socio-economic and ecological benefits.

中文摘要

摘要 海洋热浪（MHWs）威胁海洋生态系统，并对天气模式产生显著影响。在阿拉伯海，夏季海洋热浪因其对印度夏季风（近十亿人口的生命线）的潜在影响而备受关注。然而，这些海洋热浪的驱动因素及其对大气环流和季风降水的影响仍知之甚少。利用卫星观测、再分析数据集和数值模式实验，我们研究了海洋热浪的关键驱动因素并评估其影响。当保留海表温度（SST）增温趋势时，阿拉伯海东部和北部成为海洋热浪热点区域，在1982–2023年间呈现快速增长，这主要归因于人为变暖。在去除海表温度趋势以消除人为变暖对单个海洋热浪的影响后，我们发现大多数海洋热浪持续时间较短（≤20天），并由增强的地表短波辐射和与北半球夏季季节内振荡（BSISO）抑制对流阶段相关的潜热损失减少所引发。年际海表温度异常（SSTAs），包括厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和印度洋偶极子（IOD），进一步调节了海洋热浪的年际变率。相反，海洋热浪期间的暖海表温度异常对大气产生强烈的反馈作用。阿拉伯海东部的海洋热浪驱动气旋性风，增强水汽辐合，并增加印度西南沿海极端降水的风险。在阿拉伯海北部，海洋热浪诱发的气旋引发印度西北部和巴基斯坦的强降水，导致如2022年巴基斯坦洪水等极端事件。这些发现提高了我们预测阿拉伯海海洋热浪及其风险评估的能力，具有显著的社会经济和生态效益。

10. JC — Southern Ocean Barrier Layer Assessment in CMIP6 Models with Argo: Historical Bias and Possible Reasons

Abstract

Abstract The barrier layer (BL) influences air–sea heat exchange and plays a key role in regulating global climate change. Here, we provide a detailed assessment of the ability of models contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to represent the BL in the Southern Ocean. Our findings indicate that, while the CMIP6 models generally reproduce the seasonal cycle and spatial distribution of the Southern Ocean BL, the simulation results for BL thickness (BLT) remain too thin in comparison to observations. The main reason for this bias is that the models simulate a mixed layer depth that is too deep, which is associated with excessive buoyancy loss. However, in the BL core region of the South Pacific, we find that the thin BLT bias is largely due to an underestimation of the isothermal layer depth, which is caused by the unrealistic subsurface temperature structure in the models. In addition, we find that the warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Southern Ocean BL core regions is related to the thin BLT bias. This may be because the thin BLT is ineffective at inhibiting the entrainment of warm Subantarctic Mode Water into the mixed layer. Our results suggest that BLT biases in the Southern Ocean should be considered to reduce the Southern Ocean SST bias in climate models.

中文摘要

摘要 障碍层影响海气热交换，并在调节全球气候变化中发挥关键作用。本文详细评估了参与第六次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的模式对南大洋障碍层的模拟能力。研究结果表明，尽管CMIP6模式总体上能够再现南大洋障碍层的季节循环和空间分布，但模拟的障碍层厚度（BLT）相较于观测值仍然偏薄。造成这一偏差的主要原因是模式模拟的混合层深度过深，这与过度的浮力损失有关。然而，在南太平洋障碍层核心区域，我们发现BLT偏薄的偏差很大程度上源于等温层深度被低估，而这又是由模式中不真实的次表层温度结构所致。此外，我们还发现南大洋障碍层核心区域的海表温度（SST）暖偏差与BLT偏薄偏差相关。这可能是因为较薄的障碍层无法有效抑制温暖的亚南极模态水卷入混合层。我们的研究结果表明，为减少气候模式中的南大洋SST偏差，应考虑南大洋BLT偏差的影响。

11. JC — Local and Remote Impacts of Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Indonesian Throughflow in the Makassar Strait During Early 2017

  • 作者：Mingting Li, Arnold L. Gordon, Sen Yang, Laura K. Gruenburg, Asmi M. Napitu, Kandaga Pujiana, Teng Wang, Xin Yan, Bayu Priyono
  • 发表日期：2026-06-08
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0339.1

Abstract

Abstract The Makassar Strait throughflow (MST), the major component of the Indonesian throughflow, exhibited an unprecedented strong northward anomaly in the upper 150 m from January to February of 2017. The anomalous northward MST was associated with two Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events originating in the Indian Ocean. The first MJO successfully traversed the Maritime Continent (MC) to the Pacific Ocean, while the second was impeded. The main driver for the anomalous MST was Kelvin waves propagating from the Indian Ocean, with local wind stress and precipitation associated with the MJO over the MC having minor effects. During the first MJO event, coastal downwelling Kelvin waves affected sea level anomalies in the southern Makassar Strait, resulting in a northward pressure gradient and transport in the MST’s upper layer. In contrast, the second blocked MJO event was characterized by the propagation of an upwelling Kelvin wave, which decreased mixed layer thickness and subsurface layer temperature in the southern Indonesian Seas. The results highlight the importance of MJO remote influences on the Indonesian Throughflow via Kelvin wave propagation.

中文摘要

摘要 望加锡海峡贯穿流（MST）作为印度尼西亚贯穿流的主要组成部分，在2017年1月至2月期间，其上层150米出现了前所未有的强北向异常。该异常北向MST与源自印度洋的两次马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）事件相关。第一次MJO成功穿越海洋大陆（MC）进入太平洋，而第二次则受到阻碍。驱动MST异常的主要因素是来自印度洋传播的开尔文波，而MJO在MC区域引起的局地风应力和降水影响较小。在第一次MJO事件期间，沿岸下降开尔文波影响了望加锡海峡南部的海平面异常，导致MST上层产生北向压力梯度及输送。相比之下，第二次受阻的MJO事件表现为上升开尔文波的传播，降低了印度尼西亚南部海域的混合层厚度及次表层温度。研究结果凸显了MJO通过开尔文波传播对印度尼西亚贯穿流产生的远程影响的重要性。

12. JC — Disentangling the interference between Indian and Pacific Ocean teleconnections with Southern Africa during austral early summer

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the interference between Indian and Pacific Ocean teleconnections with Southern Africa (SA) during the austral early summer (November-December) of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. During 1979–2024, reanalysis and observational datasets suggest that ENSO events drive below-average rainfall conditions over SA. Partial regression analysis shows that the Indian Ocean teleconnection accounts for 38% of the ENSO-related rainfall variability over SA, while the Pacific teleconnection accounts for 62%, evidencing an interference of distinct teleconnection pathways. Two mechanisms drive these anomalies: a) a Matsuno-Gill-like response over the Indian Ocean, related to the Indian Ocean teleconnection; and b) a South Atlantic zonal wavenumber-4 Rossby wave train, associated with the Pacific teleconnection. The wave train originates from the La Plata sector, where rainfall anomalies generate vorticity tendency through vortex stretching, forming a Rossby wave source. The South Atlantic Rossby wave undergoes wave splitting, with shorter waves refracted toward SA, and longer waves continuing toward the Southern Ocean. A further analysis using a large ensemble of CMIP5/CMIP6 models suggest that the La Plata Rossby wave source is positively correlated to subsidence over SA. Furthermore, models failing to simulate the ENSO-La Plata teleconnection also do not reproduce the South Atlantic Rossby wave train, reinforcing the role of the ENSO-La Plata rainfall link in promoting subsidence over SA. Sensitivity experiments with the SINTEX-F2 general circulation model further confirm the potential interference of teleconnections originating from the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

中文摘要

摘要 本研究探讨了在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件期间的南半球初夏（11-12月），印度洋和太平洋遥相关对南部非洲（SA）的干扰作用。基于1979-2024年的再分析和观测数据集，ENSO事件导致南部非洲出现低于平均水平的降水状况。偏回归分析表明，印度洋遥相关解释了南部非洲与ENSO相关降水变率的38%，而太平洋遥相关则解释了62%，这证实了不同遥相关路径之间存在干扰。驱动这些异常的两个机制为：a) 与印度洋遥相关相关的印度洋上空类Matsuno-Gill响应；b) 与太平洋遥相关相关的南大西洋纬向波数4的罗斯贝波列。该波列起源于拉普拉塔地区，该区域的降水异常通过涡旋拉伸产生涡度倾向，形成罗斯贝波源。南大西洋罗斯贝波发生波分裂，较短波向南部非洲折射，而较长波则继续向南大洋传播。基于CMIP5/CMIP6模式大集合的进一步分析表明，拉普拉塔罗斯贝波源与南部非洲上空的沉降运动呈正相关。此外，未能模拟ENSO-拉普拉塔遥相关的模式也无法再现南大西洋罗斯贝波列，这进一步强化了ENSO-拉普拉塔降水联系在促进南部非洲上空沉降运动中的作用。基于SINTEX-F2大气环流模式的敏感性实验进一步证实了源自太平洋和印度洋的遥相关之间可能存在的干扰作用。

13. JC — Understanding the spread in climate feedbacks and polar amplification using coordinated multi-model experiments and CMIP6

  • 作者：Olivia Linke, Julien Lenhardt, Marianne T. Lund, Joonas Merikanto, Tuomas Naakka, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Bjørn H. Samset, Jennie L. Thomas, Annica M. L. Ekman
  • 发表日期：2026-06-05
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0551.1

Abstract

Abstract Polar amplification (PA) is a robust feature of climate change in coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), yet its magnitude varies substantially across models. Prior work showed that PA and its drivers, primarily positive feedbacks, are strongly linked to the degree of sea-ice loss. Here, we assess to what extent this inter-model spread narrows when sea ice and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed in a coordinated set of atmosphere-only GCM (AGCM) simulations. Three AGCMs are forced with SST and sea-ice fields from the SSP5-8.5 projection of a single reference model. Comparisons between AGCM and AOGCM ensembles reveal that prescribing sea-surface boundary conditions substantially reduces the spread in PA and its associated amplifying feedbacks. This indicates that much of the divergence in coupled projections arises from feedbacks operating on different warming and sea-ice melt patterns. Cloud feedbacks, in particular, exhibit strong sensitivity to local SST patterns in regions that contribute prominently to inter-model differences in climate sensitivity, especially the Southern mid-latitudes. Remaining spread in AGCMs isolates intrinsic atmospheric model differences. The Arctic cloud feedback emerges as a major residual uncertainty, reflecting its state dependence on cloud properties such as liquid water path. Decomposing the AGCM response further shows that roughly three-quarters of Arctic amplification is driven by sea-ice-related processes. Nevertheless, a weakened Arctic amplification persists without evolving sea ice via temperature feedbacks. In contrast, Antarctic amplification remains more uncertain and is closely linked to historical sea-ice amount, which partly determines the sea ice trajectory in future climates.

中文摘要

摘要 极地放大（PA）是耦合大气-海洋环流模式（AOGCMs）中气候变化的一个显著特征，但其幅度在不同模式间存在显著差异。先前研究表明，极地放大及其主要驱动因素（尤其是正反馈）与海冰损失程度密切相关。本文评估了在一组协调的大气环流模式（AGCM）模拟中，当海冰和海表温度（SSTs）被指定时，这种模式间差异在多大程度上缩小。三个AGCM模式被强迫使用来自单一参考模式SSP5-8.5预估的海表温度和海冰场。AGCM与AOGCM集合的比较表明，指定海表边界条件显著减少了极地放大及其相关放大反馈的差异。这表明，耦合预估中的大部分分歧源于作用于不同增温和海冰融化模式上的反馈。特别是云反馈，对局地海表温度模式表现出强烈敏感性，这些模式在气候敏感性的模式间差异中贡献显著，尤其是在南半球中纬度地区。AGCM中剩余的差异则分离出大气模式本身的固有差异。北极云反馈成为主要的残余不确定性来源，反映了其对云属性（如液态水路径）的状态依赖性。进一步分解AGCM响应表明，约四分之三的北极放大由海冰相关过程驱动。然而，即使没有海冰演变，通过温度反馈，减弱的北极放大仍然存在。相比之下，南极放大仍存在较大不确定性，且与历史海冰量密切相关，这在一定程度上决定了未来气候中的海冰轨迹。

14. GRL — Assessing the Impact of Countergradient Fluxes on the General Circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model

  • 作者：Kyle M. Nardi, Colin M. Zarzycki, Vincent E. Larson, Benjamin A. Stephens, George H. Bryan, Julio T. Bacmeister
  • 发表日期：2026-06-11
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121230

Abstract

Abstract Parameterizing boundary layer turbulence in Earth System Models (ESMs) introduces a key source of uncertainty. Here, we explore the impact of implementing a prognostic formulation (PMF) for momentum flux, which permits countergradient (CG) fluxes. We implement PMF in the turbulence parameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6). CG fluxes in PMF reduce globally‐integrated momentum flux in CAM6. A similar response in globally‐integrated momentum flux is observed when reducing a tunable diffusivity parameter in the existing diagnostic formulation for momentum flux (DMF). Both methods of reducing effective eddy diffusivity produce qualitatively similar responses in the modeled general circulation, namely an enhanced upward branch of the Hadley cell, increased equatorward low‐level flow, and strengthened meridional temperature and moisture gradients. However, the reduction in effective eddy diffusivity from CG fluxes in PMF produces a higher‐magnitude response in the general circulation compared to reducing the diffusivity parameter in DMF.

中文摘要

摘要 在地球系统模式（ESMs）中参数化边界层湍流引入了关键的不确定性来源。本文探讨了采用动量通量预报公式（PMF）的影响，该公式允许逆梯度（CG）通量的存在。我们在社区大气模式第6版（CAM6）的湍流参数化方案中实现了PMF。PMF中的CG通量减少了CAM6中全球积分的动量通量。当降低现有动量通量诊断公式（DMF）中可调扩散率参数时，观察到全球积分动量通量出现类似响应。两种降低有效涡扩散率的方法在模拟的大气环流中产生了定性相似的结果，即哈德莱环流上升支增强、向赤道的低层气流加强，以及经向温度和湿度梯度增大。然而，与降低DMF中的扩散率参数相比，PMF中CG通量导致的涡扩散率降低在大气环流中产生了更大幅度的响应。

15. GRL — Anthropogenic Aerosols Influence Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Gradient Trends

Abstract

Abstract The tropical Pacific is warming more in the west than the east. This observed strengthening of the tropical Pacific east‐to‐west Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradient is poorly reproduced in climate models—a prominent model bias with far reaching global impacts. We explore the tropical Pacific SST gradient response to anthropogenic aerosols in large‐ensembles of CMIP6 simulations between 1950 and 2014. We find that anthropogenic aerosols are cooling the tropical Pacific—the cooling is more pronounced in the east Pacific—while greenhouse gases have the opposite response. Tropical Pacific gradient strengthening is not due to the anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing magnitude or top of atmosphere energy imbalance. This suggests that pathways connecting the regional radiative response to the tropical Pacific are important. In the future, all models predict a weakening gradient, irrespective of historical trends. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing plays an important role in driving changes in tropical Pacific SSTs.

中文摘要

摘要 热带太平洋西部变暖幅度大于东部。这种观测到的热带太平洋东西向海表温度（SST）梯度增强现象在气候模式中难以复现——这是一个具有深远全球影响的显著模式偏差。我们基于1950年至2014年间CMIP6多集合模拟，探究了人为气溶胶对热带太平洋SST梯度的影响。研究发现，人为气溶胶对热带太平洋具有冷却效应——东太平洋冷却更为显著——而温室气体则呈现相反响应。热带太平洋梯度增强并非源于人为气溶胶有效辐射强迫强度或大气层顶能量收支失衡。这表明区域辐射响应与热带太平洋之间的连接路径至关重要。未来所有模式均预测梯度减弱，无论历史趋势如何。人为气溶胶强迫在驱动热带太平洋SST变化中发挥着重要作用。

16. GRL — Mechanisms for Meridional Propagation of Global Mesoscale Ocean Eddies Within a PV‐Based Dynamic Framework

Abstract

Abstract Mesoscale eddies are crucial for global heat and tracer transport, yet the mechanisms underlying their meridional movement remain unclear. Here, we combine satellite observations, idealized numerical experiments, and theoretical modeling to investigate these mechanisms. We demonstrate that the meridional eddy movement is strongly linked to the advection by large scale circulation. The eddy meridional propagation patterns in most ocean basins are determined by wind‐driven circulation via Sverdrup dynamics, while in the regions as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) strongly with topographic steering circulation. Changes in eddy relative vorticity throughout their lifecycle further influence meridional trajectories, especially during growth and decay phases. A PV‐based dynamical framework is further applied to quantitatively incorporate these mechanisms and aligns well with observations. This framework provides a robust diagnostic tool for understanding and predicting global meridional eddy propagation, improving our ability to assess eddy impacts on climate variability and marine ecosystems.

中文摘要

摘要 中尺度涡旋对全球热量和示踪物输运至关重要，但其经向运动的机制仍不明确。本研究结合卫星观测、理想化数值实验和理论建模来探究这些机制。我们证明涡旋的经向运动与大尺度环流的平流作用密切相关。在多数海盆中，涡旋经向传播模式由风生环流通过斯维尔德鲁普动力学决定，而在南极绕极流（ACC）等区域则受地形引导环流强烈影响。涡旋相对涡度在其生命周期中的变化进一步影响经向轨迹，尤其在增长和衰减阶段。我们进一步应用基于位涡（PV）的动力学框架来定量整合这些机制，该框架与观测结果高度吻合。该框架为理解和预测全球涡旋经向传播提供了稳健的诊断工具，提升了我们评估涡旋对气候变异性和海洋生态系统影响的能力。

17. GRL — Intensification of Eddy Energetics Modulates Seasonal Trends and Spatial Variability in the East Australian Current System

Abstract

Abstract The East Australian Current (EAC) separates near 32°S, forming large, energetic eddies. While the seasonal cycle of the EAC system is well documented, the season‐specific long‐term trends in its separation latitude, eddy energetics, and their spatial heterogeneity remain poorly understood. Using 25‐year of satellite observations and high‐resolution model output, we find the significant southward shift in the EAC separation latitude is strongest in austral spring. Eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and mean‐to‐eddy energy conversion also show seasonal and spatial heterogeneity; decreasing strongly in the EAC retroflection during summer and increasing in the EAC southern extension during autumn. Barotropic instability dominates eddy generation year‐round in the retroflection, but only in autumn in the southern extension. EKE anomalies propagate southward with a 2–3 months lag. Our findings show that eddy energetics in the EAC system are characterized by spatial heterogeneity and seasonal dependence, accurately representing this spatiotemporal variability is essential for improving predictions.

中文摘要

摘要 东澳大利亚洋流（EAC）在32°S附近发生分离，形成大尺度、高能量的涡旋。尽管EAC系统的季节循环已有充分记录，但其分离纬度、涡旋能量学及其空间异质性的季节特异性长期趋势仍鲜为人知。利用25年的卫星观测数据和高分辨率模式输出，我们发现EAC分离纬度的显著南移在南半球春季最为强烈。涡动能（EKE）及平均流-涡旋能量转换也表现出季节和空间异质性：夏季在EAC回流区显著减弱，秋季在EAC南延伸区增强。正压不稳定性全年主导回流区的涡旋生成，但在南延伸区仅秋季占主导。EKE异常以2-3个月的滞后向南传播。我们的研究结果表明，EAC系统中的涡旋能量学具有空间异质性和季节依赖性特征，准确表征这种时空变异性对于改进预测至关重要。

18. GRL — Seasonal Prediction Skill Contrasts of Subtropical North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Under Different AMV Phases

Abstract

Abstract Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) exerts profound climatic influences on both local and remote regions. Recent studies show that AMV can significantly modulate the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its teleconnections. However, few studies have examined AMV impacts on seasonal prediction skill. Combining observational data and ensemble hindcasts, this study investigates AMV impacts on the seasonal prediction skill of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in subtropical North Atlantic. Results indicate that the seasonal prediction skill of spring SSTA over the subtropical North Atlantic is significantly higher in AMV positive phase than in AMV negative phase. Similar contrasts are observed in SSTA persistence. Further analyses reveal that these AMV‐related differences are closely linked to variations in upper‐ocean heat content, which arise primarily from disparities in heat convergence associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

中文摘要

摘要 大西洋多年代际变率（AMV）对局地和遥远区域均产生深远的气候影响。近期研究表明，AMV可显著调节厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）及其遥相关。然而，关于AMV对季节预测能力影响的研究尚不多见。本研究结合观测数据和集合后报试验，探讨了AMV对亚热带北大西洋海表温度异常（SSTA）季节预测能力的影响。结果表明，在AMV正位相期间，亚热带北大西洋春季SSTA的季节预测能力显著高于AMV负位相期间。SSTA持续性也呈现出类似的差异。进一步分析揭示，这些与AMV相关的差异与上层海洋热含量变化密切相关，而热含量变化主要源于与大西洋经向翻转环流相关的热通量辐合差异。

19. GRL — Baroclinic Submesoscale Eddies in the Ross Ice Shelf Cavity Alter Heat Pathways to the Ice Base

Abstract

Abstract The influence of baroclinic submesoscale eddies on basal melting beneath Ross Ice Shelf remains poorly understood. We analyzed a 4.5‐year mooring record from the central cavity and identified seven eddy‐like events from variability in density, velocity, and thermohaline structure, with horizontal scales (∼11 km) characteristic of submesoscale motions capable of enhancing vertical heat transport. However, most events had little effect on basal melt: a mid‐depth layer of cold water intrusions (“interleaving”) acted as a thermohaline barrier, trapping warm, salty anomalies near 600 dbar and preventing their transfer to the ice base. Melt rates therefore remained near zero. In contrast, one exceptional eddy maintained a coherent vertical structure that overcame the interleaving, allowing warm, salty water to reach the ice base and coinciding with melt rates near the maximum observed . These results reveal a state‐dependent eddy–interleaving mechanism with implications for Ross Ice Shelf stability under climate change.

中文摘要

摘要 斜压次中尺度涡旋对罗斯冰架底部融化的影响仍知之甚少。我们分析了中央冰腔4.5年的锚系观测记录，根据密度、流速和温盐结构的变异性识别出七次类涡旋事件，其水平尺度（约11公里）具有次中尺度运动的特征，能够增强垂向热输送。然而，大多数事件对基底融化影响甚微：中层冷水入侵层（”交错层”）充当了温盐屏障，将暖盐异常体困在600分巴深度附近，阻止其向冰架底部传输。因此，融化速率仍接近零。相比之下，一次特殊的涡旋保持了连贯的垂向结构，突破了交错层，使暖盐水体抵达冰架底部，并恰好对应接近观测最大值的融化速率。这些结果揭示了一种状态依赖的涡旋-交错层机制，对气候变化背景下罗斯冰架的稳定性具有启示意义。

20. Nature Climate Change — Human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900

  • 作者：Sönke Dangendorf, Qiang Sun, Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Marta Marcos, Ben Marzeion, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Jerry X. Mitrovica
  • 发表日期：2026-06-10
  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02659-0

Abstract

Nature Climate Change, Published online: 10 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02659-0 Sea-level rise in conjunction with storm surge and tidal variations leads to extreme sea levels that threaten coastal systems. Here the authors use tide-gauge data and models to quantify how anthropogenic climate change has increased the risk of these extreme sea-level events since 1900.

中文摘要

《自然·气候变化》2026年6月10日在线发表；doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02659-0 海平面上升与风暴潮及潮汐变化共同作用，导致极端海平面事件，对海岸系统构成威胁。本文作者利用验潮站数据和模型，量化了自1900年以来人为气候变化如何增加了此类极端海平面事件的风险。

21. GRL — Anthropogenic Carbon Isotope Signals in North Atlantic Water Masses at 48°N

Abstract

Abstract Deep‐water masses are formed in the North‐Atlantic, making studies of δ 13 C of dissolved CO 2 in this region key to monitor and understand the spreading of anthropogenic carbon into the ocean interior. The objective of this study is to quantify the Suess effect (SE) in North Atlantic water masses using sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) as the anthropogenic marker. We investigated water samples on two sections across the North‐Atlantic Ocean (∼48°N) from 2017/2018. Our data show that only bottom‐waters on the eastern side of the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge do not yet have a significant SE signal using SF 6 . On the western side, a massive eddy visible in 2018 advected Labrador Sea Water labeled with a strong SE down to 2,000 m. These findings contribute to our understanding of the anthropogenic carbon signal in the deep ocean and highlight the importance to consider the SE in core top calibrations and paleoceanographic reconstructions using foraminiferal δ 13 C.

中文摘要

深层水团形成于北大西洋，因此对该区域溶解二氧化碳的δ¹³C进行研究，是监测和理解人为碳向海洋内部扩散的关键。本研究旨在利用六氟化硫（SF₆）作为人为示踪剂，量化北大西洋水团中的苏斯效应（SE）。我们分析了2017/2018年横跨北大西洋（约48°N）两个断面的水样数据。数据显示，仅大西洋中脊东侧的底层水尚未通过SF₆检测到显著的苏斯效应信号。在西侧，2018年观测到的一个巨型涡旋将携带强苏斯效应信号的拉布拉多海水向下输送至2000米深度。这些发现深化了我们对深海人为碳信号的理解，并强调了在利用有孔虫δ¹³C进行沉积物表层校准和古海洋学重建时考虑苏斯效应的重要性。

22. GRL — Reduced Distinctiveness of Extreme El Niño Teleconnections in Warmer Climates

Abstract

Abstract In today’s climate, extreme El Niño events (e.g., 1982–1983, 1997–1998) generate stronger and eastward‐shifted teleconnections relative to moderate El Niño and La Niña events, leading to distinct North American impacts such as enhanced rainfall over California and warming over northeastern North America. A multi‐model, multi‐member, multi‐scenario CMIP6 analysis shows that as warming exceeds +2°C, extreme El Niño teleconnections shift even farther eastward (by 20°), weaken (by 33% at +3.5°C over North America) and develop a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like response, echoing the changes seen in moderate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Extreme El Niño North American impacts become progressively closer to those of moderate events, with little distinctiveness left beyond +3.5°C. Although future teleconnection changes are much stronger for extreme El Niños, their increased frequency and altered future patterns contribute only modestly to the overall change in ENSO teleconnections.

中文摘要

摘要 在当前气候条件下，极端厄尔尼诺事件（如1982–1983年、1997–1998年）相比中等强度厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件，会产生更强且东移的遥相关，导致北美地区出现显著影响，例如加利福尼亚州降水增强和北美东北部增暖。基于多模式、多成员、多情景的CMIP6分析表明，当增温超过+2°C时，极端厄尔尼诺遥相关将进一步东移（幅度达20°），强度减弱（在+3.5°C增温下北美地区减弱33%），并发展出类似负北大西洋涛动的响应，这与中等强度厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）相位中观测到的变化一致。极端厄尔尼诺对北美的影响将逐渐趋近于中等强度事件的影响，在+3.5°C增温以上时几乎不再具有独特性。尽管未来极端厄尔尼诺的遥相关变化远强于其他事件，但其频率增加和未来格局改变对ENSO遥相关整体变化的贡献仅占较小部分。

边缘相关条目

命中物理海洋学关键词，但同时涉及其他学科领域，仅供参考。

  • GRL — The Role of Mafic Intrusion in Seismotectonics: Insights From the 1668 M 8.5 Tancheng Earthquake Rupture Zone Along the Tan‐Lu Fault Zone, Eastern China（DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl121685）
    • 命中: upwelling
    • 排除: seismic
  • Nature — Amplified Arctic iceberg traffic reshapes benthic biodiversity（DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10630-4）
    • 命中: sea ice
    • 排除: biodiversity
  • Nature Geoscience — Sea-level fall might increase ridge volcanism, iron fertilization and ocean carbon storage（DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02017-x）
    • 命中: sea level
    • 排除: phytoplankton, sediment

待人工核实

元数据缺失（摘要 / DOI / 作者），需人工核查后再纳入。

  • Ocean Modelling — Parameter optimization and the variational estimation in marine water quality modelling
    • 缺失项: 摘要缺失或过短
    • 链接: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102778